How Polymarket tweet-count markets resolve

A tweet-count market does not resolve to “however many posts you can see on a profile tonight.” Official Polymarket docs say every market has written rules, and that those rules name a resolution source — the place the outcome is taken from. The title is the question. The rules are the instrument.

This page uses one live specimen, Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026?, only to quote rules text retrieved from that event on 16 August 2026 UTC. It is not a prediction of the month. Companion: How YES and NO Contracts Resolve.

What the retrieved rules say counts

The event page’s rules say the market resolves according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts on X during August 2026. For that market:

• Only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count.
• Replies will NOT count toward the total — except replies that appear on the main feed, which the tracker counts.
• Deleted posts count if they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (the rules say about five minutes).
• Community reposts that the tracker does not count do not count toward the total.

Those are the venue’s words from the opened event page. They are not a claim that X’s public reply/repost labels match the tracker one-for-one.

Where the number comes from

The same rules name the resolution source: the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts at xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking “Export Data.” If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Vendor tracker docs at xtracker.polymarket.com/docs describe a public API under https://xtracker.polymarket.com/api, including a user record by handle and a tracking period with optional statistics. Those docs say dates are stored in UTC and tracking periods are defined in EST (America/New_York).

The August 2026 tracking record fetched from that API (tracking id printed on the user record, title matching the event, marketLink pointing at the same event URL) used startDate 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z and endDate 2026-09-01T03:59:59.000Z and was marked active. The event page listed the market as opened 24 July 2026, 12:00 AM ET, with an end date of 1 September 2026.

A dated Post Counter — not a forecast

The tracker HTML shell loaded as a JavaScript app and did not show a usable total on the fetch. The tracking record with statistics did. At lastSync 2026-08-16T02:35:41.227Z, stats.total on that August tracking was 366. That is a snapshot of the named resolution figure at that timestamp. It is not the September resolution, and it is not a reason to buy or sell a bin.

A tracker “pace” field was also present on that payload. This page does not print it. A pace is a projection. This guide is not a forecast.

What this page does not claim

• That 366 is the final August total.
• That an X profile count, fetched or remembered, equals the Post Counter.
• That live bin prices on the event page are part of the resolution rule.
• How UMA proposal bonds or challenge hours work — that sits on the companion resolution page and in the official docs.
• Trading advice.