Markets
Questions currently carrying volume on Polymarket's public page. Expand a row for the outcome prices as the provider reports them. Nothing here is a recommendation.
- UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
- Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
- Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
- Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Denis Shapovalov
- UFC 330: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)
- UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
- Charlotte FC vs. Columbus Crew
- UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)
- Fed Decision in September?
- UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
Next reads
What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is a market in contracts that pay a fixed amount if a defined event happens. The price is what people will pay for that payoff right now — useful as a probability estimate, but not a fact about the world.
Bid, Ask, Spread, Depth, and the Price You Can Actually Trade
Last trade, midpoint, bid, and ask are different numbers, and the one a venue displays is a formatting choice. The price you can actually get also depends on how much depth exists for the size you need.
How YES and NO Contracts Resolve
YES and NO settle from written contract terms: the condition, deadline, time zone, resolution source, and the rules for messy edge cases.
What one academic paper documented about complementary-price extraction on Polymarket
Saguillo et al. (AFT 2025) classified complementary-price, NegRisk, and combinatorial extraction on markets that resolved 1 April 2024 to 1 April 2025 and reported $39,587,585.02. That is a pre-fee, dated measurement — not “bots made $40 million,” and not a claim the same gaps are still there in 2026.