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26 results
- Guide
Why Complementary Prices Should Add Up to About a Dollar
Yes and No are two sides of one dollar of collateral. A sum under $1 or over $1 is a fact about complementary prices — before fees, spread, and fill risk — not a verdict that the event is wrong.
- Article
How many Polymarket wallets are in profit — and why 16% and 30% are both in the literature
Sergeenkov’s all-address cut through 1 April 2026 is 15.9% in realized profit. DeFi Oasis and a Reichenbach & Walther author note sit near 30%. The difference is mostly method. None of these is an “active trader” rate.
- Article
What one academic paper documented about complementary-price extraction on Polymarket
Saguillo et al. (AFT 2025) classified complementary-price, NegRisk, and combinatorial extraction on markets that resolved 1 April 2024 to 1 April 2025 and reported $39,587,585.02. That is a pre-fee, dated measurement — not “bots made $40 million,” and not a claim the same gaps are still there in 2026.
- Article
What public data actually says about wallets that end in profit
Opened pages support concentration, short-lived high-monthly-profit addresses, and make-versus-take. Hold time, copy-trading, off-peak hours, and a preferred event type are UNKNOWN. One 2024–25 paper documents complementary-price extraction as an activity — not as advice.
- Guide
Why the Number on the Screen Is Not Always the Number You Can Trade
The displayed price is often a midpoint. Buyers pay the ask. Taker fees apply on many categories. A Yes+No sum that looks like $1 can still not be a lock.
- Guide
Markets Are Not Polls
A prediction-market price is a tradeable claim with a named payoff. A poll percentage is a different forecasting object. The same numeral does not make them the same measurement.
- Guide
What a Negative-Risk Multi-Outcome Event Is
A simple market is two tokens. A negative-risk event links several of those markets so that one No can convert into a Yes on every other outcome. That is a conversion machine — not a promise that you cannot lose, and not a live book that sums to a dollar.
- Guide
What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is a market in contracts that pay a fixed amount if a defined event happens. The price is what people will pay for that payoff right now — useful as a probability estimate, but not a fact about the world.
- Article
Forbes printed that Fernandoinfante turned about $13,200 into $467,515 on a US-Iran ceasefire contract. Here's what the record shows.
A Forbes contributor named the username and the conversion. The public profile still exists. The pages do not agree on which dollar is the win, and a reader cannot copy the trade.
- Article
A days-old Polymarket account was reported to have made about $9 million against Spain. Here's what the record shows.
CoinDesk printed a profit of more than $9 million on two Spain-Cabo Verde contracts. The public profile still exists. The pages do not agree on which dollar is the win, and a reader cannot copy the trade.
- Article
A French trader was reported to have made more than $85 million on Polymarket. Here’s what the record shows.
Bloomberg and Chainalysis printed more than $85 million across as many as 11 accounts. The four named profiles still exist. The pages do not agree on the dollar, and a reader cannot copy the trade.
- Article
JPMorgan ended a formal Polymarket banking relationship. The rest of the tie is company-described.
Secondary reports of a 14 August 2026 Financial Times story say the bank closed a formal account in October 2025. Polymarket describes remaining ties. JPMorgan has declined to comment. The $1 billion / $20 billion figures are reported targets.
- Article
Most Polymarket wallets lose. The public record says 15.9% — and also about 30%.
Sergeenkov’s all-address cut through 1 April 2026 is 15.9% in realized profit. Other public cuts sit near 30%. Neither is an active-trader rate, and a named whale does not rewrite the ladder.
- Article
What one paper documented about last-second settlement on Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin markets
Dai, Jia and Yu (arXiv:2606.31675, current version 11 August 2026) classified about 1,600 five-minute Bitcoin cycles as likely manipulated and attributed $8.2 million in those cycles to 821 wallets. That is a profit-based, pre-TWAP measurement — not a finding of legal fraud, and not a claim the same windows still exist after 7 August 2026.
- Article
What one paper documented about why naive Polymarket volume overcounts
Tsang and Yang (arXiv:2603.03136, current version 11 August 2026) reconstruct the 2024 Presidential Election Winner market. Raw OrderFilled aggregation reports $958.478 million of October Trump-market volume; their exchange-equivalent turnover is $391.030 million. That is a 2024 accounting result — not a 15 August 2026 volume, and not a claim the number on a live page is wrong.
- Briefing
The Saturday tape is a sports book, and the day's largest series has already gone to a dollar
Five public Polymarket events, read as measurements: a settled LPL series, two esports books still printing, a Cincinnati match that moved 36 cents, and a September Fed decision whose displayed Yes prices still sum near $1. A move is a measurement. A cause is a claim. This edition does not have causes.
- Briefing
The Sunday tape is a sports book, and the day's largest series has already gone to a dollar
Five public Polymarket events, read as measurements: a settled LPL series, a Ligue 1 three-way that printed 80 cents on Lens, an LCS series still near a dollar on one side, a Brewers–Dodgers moneyline that moved 59 cents, and an MLS three-way whose displayed Yes prices still sum near $1. A move is a measurement. A cause is a claim. This edition does not have causes.
- Guide
How to Read an Event Page Versus a Market Page
Official docs treat an event as a container and a market as the Yes/No book. The documented path — /event/ versus /market/ — is how you tell which object you opened. A matching headline is not identity.
- Guide
How Polymarket tweet-count markets resolve
The named resolution source is the Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com. Main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts count. Replies generally do not. This is mechanics, not a forecast.
- Guide
How Split, Merge, and Redeem Work
Split turns a dollar of pUSD into a Yes and a No. Merge turns that complete pair back into a dollar. Redeem pays the winning token after resolution. All three sit outside the order book — not a how-to, and not a live book that sums to a dollar.
- Guide
What the Documented Venue Means by a Market Order
On the documented venue, every user-facing order is a limit order. A "market order" is that same order priced to cross the book. The estimate is a snapshot. Delayed is not a fill.
- Guide
What a public Polymarket wallet does not tell you
A public profile is a named address plus optional display fields. Positions, activity, and a leaderboard row are different objects. None of them is a fill, a fee path, or a promise the next event is the same contract.
- Article
What a 65% Prediction-Market Price Means (and What It Does Not)
Read 65 cents as a market-implied probability of roughly 65% for one contract at one moment, measured one specific way—not certainty, not a poll, and not a promise. The 65% used here is a worked example, not a live quote.
- Guide
How to compare two contracts on the same question
Two venues can quote the same headline and still be selling different contracts. Check the wording, the source, and the deadline before you compare the numbers.
- Guide
How YES and NO Contracts Resolve
YES and NO settle from written contract terms: the condition, deadline, time zone, resolution source, and the rules for messy edge cases.
- Guide
Bid, Ask, Spread, Depth, and the Price You Can Actually Trade
Last trade, midpoint, bid, and ask are different numbers, and the one a venue displays is a formatting choice. The price you can actually get also depends on how much depth exists for the size you need.