The briefing
One read a day: what matters, what actually moved, where two markets disagree, and what resolves next. A move is a measurement. A cause is a claim. We keep the two apart.
A price is not a fact. It is what someone was willing to pay to be right.
Every figure carries its own label. Real numbers are sourced and set in tabular figures. Where we do not know, the briefing says UNKNOWN or shows an em dash rather than guessing.
Nothing in the briefing is trading advice. It is an explanation of what changed and how confident that explanation is.
Latest edition
The Saturday tape is a sports book, and the day's largest series has already gone to a dollar
Five public Polymarket events, read as measurements: a settled LPL series, two esports books still printing, a Cincinnati match that moved 36 cents, and a September Fed decision whose displayed Yes prices still sum near $1. A move is a measurement. A cause is a claim. This edition does not have causes.