Understand the market. Then build on it.
Plain-language foundations for new readers, then deeper strategy, data, and bot-building guides for people ready to test their own ideas.
Choose a learning path
Begin with the basics
Learn what prices mean, how contracts resolve, where risk hides, and how to read a market without mistaking it for a fact.
Test, model, and monitor
Move into market structure, strategy evaluation, APIs, data pipelines, read-only monitors, and responsible bot design.
Beginner foundations
Contracts, prices, resolution, research, and common mistakes.
How Polymarket tweet-count markets resolve
The named resolution source is the Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com. Main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts count. Replies generally do not. This is mechanics, not a forecast.
Why the Number on the Screen Is Not Always the Number You Can Trade
The displayed price is often a midpoint. Buyers pay the ask. Taker fees apply on many categories. A Yes+No sum that looks like $1 can still not be a lock.
Markets Are Not Polls
A prediction-market price is a tradeable claim with a named payoff. A poll percentage is a different forecasting object. The same numeral does not make them the same measurement.
What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is a market in contracts that pay a fixed amount if a defined event happens. The price is what people will pay for that payoff right now — useful as a probability estimate, but not a fact about the world.
How YES and NO Contracts Resolve
YES and NO settle from written contract terms: the condition, deadline, time zone, resolution source, and the rules for messy edge cases.
How to Read an Event Page Versus a Market Page
Official docs treat an event as a container and a market as the Yes/No book. The documented path — /event/ versus /market/ — is how you tell which object you opened. A matching headline is not identity.
Strategy and builder lab
What a public Polymarket wallet does not tell you
A public profile is a named address plus optional display fields. Positions, activity, and a leaderboard row are different objects. None of them is a fill, a fee path, or a promise the next event is the same contract.
How to compare two contracts on the same question
Two venues can quote the same headline and still be selling different contracts. Check the wording, the source, and the deadline before you compare the numbers.
Terms without the fog
Quick definitions for the language that makes prediction markets harder than they need to be.
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