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A Forbes contributor named the username and the conversion. The public profile still exists. The pages do not agree on which dollar is the win, and a reader cannot copy the trade.
CoinDesk printed a profit of more than $9 million on two Spain-Cabo Verde contracts. The public profile still exists. The pages do not agree on which dollar is the win, and a reader cannot copy the trade.
Sergeenkov’s all-address cut through 1 April 2026 is 15.9% in realized profit. Other public cuts sit near 30%. Neither is an active-trader rate, and a named whale does not rewrite the ladder.
Bloomberg and Chainalysis printed more than $85 million across as many as 11 accounts. The four named profiles still exist. The pages do not agree on the dollar, and a reader cannot copy the trade.
Secondary reports of a 14 August 2026 Financial Times story say the bank closed a formal account in October 2025. Polymarket describes remaining ties. JPMorgan has declined to comment. The $1 billion / $20 billion figures are reported targets.
The named resolution source is the Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com. Main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts count. Replies generally do not. This is mechanics, not a forecast.
Read 65 cents as a market-implied probability of roughly 65% for one contract at one moment, measured one specific way—not certainty, not a poll, and not a promise. The 65% used here is a worked example, not a live quote.
Saguillo et al. (AFT 2025) classified complementary-price, NegRisk, and combinatorial extraction on markets that resolved 1 April 2024 to 1 April 2025 and reported $39,587,585.02. That is a pre-fee, dated measurement — not “bots made $40 million,” and not a claim the same gaps are still there in 2026.
Opened pages support concentration, short-lived high-monthly-profit addresses, and make-versus-take. Hold time, copy-trading, off-peak hours, and a preferred event type are UNKNOWN. One 2024–25 paper documents complementary-price extraction as an activity — not as advice.
The displayed price is often a midpoint. Buyers pay the ask. Taker fees apply on many categories. A Yes+No sum that looks like $1 can still not be a lock.
A prediction-market price is a tradeable claim with a named payoff. A poll percentage is a different forecasting object. The same numeral does not make them the same measurement.
