The Saturday tape is a sports book, and the day's largest series has already gone to a dollar
Five public Polymarket events, read as measurements: a settled LPL series, two esports books still printing, a Cincinnati match that moved 36 cents, and a September Fed decision whose displayed Yes prices still sum near $1. A move is a measurement. A cause is a claim. This edition does not have causes.
What matters today
The volume-ranked public book this afternoon is a Saturday sports tape
Of 25 Gamma events ordered by volume24hr at 17:22:08 UTC, the top eight were live matches or a UFC main card. That is a ranking, not a claim about importance.
Questions to watch
Nothing worth reporting in this edition. We leave the section empty rather than fill it.
Meaningful movement
ThunderTalk Gaming vs Anyone's Legend — match closed at $0 / $1
Event volume24hr $3,282,234.38. Displayed ThunderTalk $0, Anyone's Legend $1 (sum $1.00). oneDayPriceChange on ThunderTalk −0.1745. Event endDate 2026-08-15T16:00:00Z, already past. Cause UNKNOWN.
FURIA vs 9z — FURIA displayed $0.932, +27.7 cents on the day
Event volume24hr $2,294,290.63. 9z $0.068. Sum $1.000. Last 0.932, bid 0.931, ask 0.933. Event endDate 2026-08-15T20:20:00Z.
SK Gaming vs Fnatic — SK displayed $0.0005, −53.45 cents on the day
Event volume24hr $1,714,010.02. Fnatic $0.9995. Sum $1.000. Market still closed:false; whether the series is finished is UNKNOWN. Event endDate 2026-08-15T21:00:00Z.
Kecmanovic vs Cobolli — Kecmanovic displayed $0.115, −36 cents on the day
Event volume24hr $569,002.27. Cobolli $0.885. Sum $1.000. Last/bid/ask 0.11 / 0.11 / 0.12. Event endDate 2026-08-22T14:00:00Z is the payload date, not a match-end claim.
Fed September — no-change Yes $0.735; five Yes prices sum to $1.0015
Event volume24hr $814,575.64. negRisk true. Each Yes/No pair displays at $1.000. oneDayPriceChange present only on no-change (−0.01) and −25 bps (+0.001). Event endDate 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z.
Why Complementary Prices Should Add Up to About a DollarYes and No are two sides of one dollar of collateral. A sum under $1 or over $1 is a fact about complementary prices — before fees, spread, and fill risk — not a verdict that the event is wrong.
Where markets disagree
Complementary displayed prices are near a dollar; tradeable sums are UNKNOWN
Four taped binaries display at $1.000. Fed Yes-bundle displays at $1.0015. Bid/ask missing on at least one side of several pairs. No second venue was fetched. Kalshi was not used.
Upcoming catalysts
Nothing worth reporting in this edition. We leave the section empty rather than fill it.
Resolving soon
FURIA vs 9z — event endDate 20:20 UTC today
15 August 2026, 4:20 p.m. EDT. Deadline on the contract, not a resolution click.
SK Gaming vs Fnatic — event endDate 21:00 UTC today
15 August 2026, 5:00 p.m. EDT.
Two dated 15 August child markets, 23:59 UTC
Israel x Iran ceasefire through August 15 (Yes $0.9965 at 17:21:40 UTC). US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15 (Yes $0.0065 at 17:21:30 UTC). Parent events end 31 August.
UFC 330 — event endDate 16 August 2026, 03:59:59.999 UTC
11:59:59 p.m. EDT tonight. Not taped as a mover (oneDayPriceChange −0.01).
One tool worth knowing
Nothing worth reporting in this edition. We leave the section empty rather than fill it.
One concept
A move is a measurement. A cause is a claim.
oneDayPriceChange is a Gamma field. It is not a news story. Where the field is absent, direction is UNKNOWN.
Read next
- What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is a market in contracts that pay a fixed amount if a defined event happens. The price is what people will pay for that payoff right now — useful as a probability estimate, but not a fact about the world.
- Bid, Ask, Spread, Depth, and the Price You Can Actually Trade
Last trade, midpoint, bid, and ask are different numbers, and the one a venue displays is a formatting choice. The price you can actually get also depends on how much depth exists for the size you need.
- What one academic paper documented about complementary-price extraction on Polymarket
Saguillo et al. (AFT 2025) classified complementary-price, NegRisk, and combinatorial extraction on markets that resolved 1 April 2024 to 1 April 2025 and reported $39,587,585.02. That is a pre-fee, dated measurement — not “bots made $40 million,” and not a claim the same gaps are still there in 2026.