Methodology
How we read a market before we write about it, and the mistakes we refuse to make.
How we read a contract
In this order: the resolution rules, the resolution source, then the deadline. The rules say what actually has to happen. The source says who decides. The deadline says by when. A question in plain English is not the contract; the rules are.
Displayed price is not executable price
The number on the screen is a reference. Spread, depth, and fees mean the price you can actually trade at size is usually different, and we do not know by how much unless we can see the book at that moment. We write about displayed prices as displayed prices.
Price proximity is not equivalence
Two contracts sitting near the same price are not the same bet. They can differ in resolution rules, source, and deadline, and any one of those differences can decide the outcome. A price is also not a verified probability; it is what someone was willing to trade at, which is evidence about belief, not a measurement of the world.