Topic

Market mechanics

How prediction-market prices, order books, spreads and settlement actually work.

• What a 65% Prediction-Market Price Means (and What It Does Not)

  Read 65 cents as a market-implied probability of roughly 65% for one contract at one moment, measured one specific way—not certainty, not a poll, and not a promise. The 65% used here is a worked example, not a live quote.

  9 min read · 16 August 2026

• What Is a Prediction Market?

  A prediction market is a market in contracts that pay a fixed amount if a defined event happens. The price is what people will pay for that payoff right now — useful as a probability estimate, but not a fact about the world.

  Guide · 16 August 2026

• How YES and NO Contracts Resolve

  YES and NO settle from written contract terms: the condition, deadline, time zone, resolution source, and the rules for messy edge cases.

  Guide · 16 August 2026

• Bid, Ask, Spread, Depth, and the Price You Can Actually Trade

  Last trade, midpoint, bid, and ask are different numbers, and the one a venue displays is a formatting choice. The price you can actually get also depends on how much depth exists for the size you need.

  Guide · 16 August 2026